07 June 2012

Can 'I'll Have Another' win the Triple Crown?

All eyes this Saturday will be on Belmont Park as it will be the 144th running of the Belmont Stakes and as I'll Have Another, winner of the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness Stakes, attempts to become the 12th winner of racing's Triple Crown and the first since Affirmed did it in 1978. Can the colt make history or will he fall short as so many have before him?

There is a reason why 11 horses that have gone for the Triple Crown since Affirmed won it have all failed to pull it off and that is because you never know what to expect at the Belmont. Tim Layden breaks it down pretty well about the reasons why the colts going for the Crown have failed to do so. There have been a myriad of reasons of why those horses, who look destined to finally pull it off, were not able to do so.

And a key factor will always be the length of the track at Belmont Park. This is the longest dirt track these horses will have ever run and will ever run so stamina is always a concern. Speaking of stamina, this will be the third race that I'll Have Another will have run in five weeks. One cannot deny that these horses are so fragile nowadays, considering that besides I'll Have Another, only one horse will be in the field that ran in both Louisville and Baltimore and that is Optimizer, whose odds right now are at 30-1.

Does that mean that I'll Have Another will not win on Saturday? Of course not. But it means that the odds are longer than the bettors will be betting on. I do not expect I'll Have Another to win the Belmont Stakes and my pick to win is Union Rags because he's well rested and he's been hindered by bad luck. I think he is due and I think that history will have to wait at least another year.

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