2011 MLB Season Predictions

As the temperatures outside get warmer, that can only mean one thing: America's Pastime is back. As Spring Training is underway down in Florida and Arizona, the 2011 MLB season is right around the corner. With less than a month to Opening Day, here are my predictions for the 2011 MLB predictions, inlcuding who will be playing in this year's fall classic. 

Before I dive into my picks, here are some important questions for the 2011 MLB season.

1. Is the Phillies' rotation one of the best in history?

Without question, we have not seen a collection of elite pitchers on one pitching staff since the Atlanta Braves of the mid-1990's but even their quartet of Maddox, Glavine, Smoltz, and Avery seems to not have the glamaour of the Phillies' quartet of Halladay, Oswalt, Lee, and Hamels. Now I think that calling them the best rotation in MLB history might be a little much, but with three elite aces plus another really good pitcher in certainly something that has not been seen a whole lot throughout the history of the game. 

2. How big is Derek Jeter getting his 3,000th hit this year?

Jeter will become the first member of the New York Yankees to collect his 3,000th hit while a member of the club (Wade Boggs, Dave Winfield, and Rickey Henderson all got their 3,000th while on another club). Jeter only needs 74 hits to get to that historic mark and if he can get it while playing at Yankee Stadium (nobody has ever gotten their 3,000th hit at the old or new stadium) then it will be an even bigger moment. 

3. How much of a distraction will the Albert Pujols extension talk be?

Pujols is without question the best hitter in baseball, but a lot of attention was paid to his desire for a big contract extension. As Cardinals' elite slugger is set to hit free agency when his contract expires, the organization needs to get him signed to an extension because if he hits the open market, he just might not come back. The Cardinals need to keep all of this in mind but not let it distract the team. The NL Central is no longer the Cardinals' to lose with the Reds surging to a division crown last year plus Milwaukee adding some needed pitching help in the offseason and with Adam Wainwright out for practically the whole season, the Cardinals are not in a good spot right now. 

4. Is Prince Fielder all but certain to be leaving Milwaukee, either at the deadline or after the season?

Fielder, with the help of Scott Boras, is likely to attract a contract north of the $100 million mark, which seems to be more than the Brewers would be willing to pay. And thus, it seems that there is no chance that Fielder will be in a Brew Crew uniform come next year. But the Brewers were very aggressive in addressing their pitching needs by acquiring Zach Greinke and Shawn Marcum and look to be a serious contender for the NL Central crown. But if they fall flat, look for Fielder to be shipped out of Milwaukee at the deadline.

5. How far will the Tampa Bay Rays fall after all that they lost this offseason?

Due to a necessitiy to trim payroll, the Rays will be without many key players of their recent renaissance, including Carl Crawford, Rafael Soriano, Carlos Peña, Jason Bartlett, Matt Garza, and Joaquin Benoit. One would think that the Rays would return to mediocrity and they won't be better than a .500 team at best in all likelihood. But there is still a fair amount of talent on the roster, most notably Evan Longoria and David Price, and Joe Maddon is as good of a manager as anyone so this team will not be awful.

My Predictions

*Wild Card winner

East

1. Philadelphia Phillies

I have already touched on the Phillies' terrific starting rotation and on most teams would carry a club by themselves. But the Phillies' offense, although aging, is still very good. Jimmy Rollins is still one of the better offensive shortstops in the game. Chase Utley is solid as a rock at second. Ryan Howard is one of those ultimate swing or miss guys, but he is one of the more consistent power hitters and run producers in baseball. And the replacement for Jayson Werth in right field, Dominic Brown, has all the tools to be a star. 

This team is the finest club in the Senior Circuit.

2. Atlanta Braves*

The Braves do not have the starting rotation like they had in the 90's but their pitching staff is still a good one. Tim Hudson had a great comeback season last year, Derek Lowe looked very good late in the season and Tommy Hanson looks like a stud. The bullpen will miss Billy Wagner but they have a pair of solid power arms in Craig Kimbrel and Jonny Venters so they should be fine. 

As Chipper Jones looks to be in decline, the Braves have star in waiting Jason Heyward to anchor their lineup plus the big bat of trade acquisition Dan Uggla as well as catcher Brian McCann. And I'm a big fan of rookie first basemen Freddie Freeman.

Even with Bobby Cox no longer their manager, they will be a playoff team again.  

3. Florida Marlins

The Marlins, as usual, have really good pitching. Josh Johnson is one of the top young arms in all of baseball. Ricky Nolasco is another talented young arm and I love the acquisition of Javier Vazquez, who always seems to pitch very well when he returns to the NL after a disastrous time with the Yankees. However, I do not see Florida generating enough offense to complement their strong pitching to make it to the playoffs.

4. New York Mets

Ahh the Mets. What a dysfunctional organization. The Mets really need to start a rebuilding project but have yet to do so. Their offense will generate some runs thanks to a solid top of the order with Jose Reyes and Angel Pagan plus the consistent David Wright and the talented youngster Ike Davis. I just do not see the pitching for this club with Johan Santana out. 

5. Washington Nationals

The Nats spent a lot of change on Jayson Werth and he and Ryan Zimmerman should piece together a solid middle of the lineup. But they don't have much pitching, as proven by the fact that Livan Hernandez is their ace. Bryce Harper can't come soon enough (and neither can Stephen Strasburg from his Tommy John surgery). 

Central

1. Milwaukee Brewers

Even with the concern over Prince Fielder's expiring contract, the Brewers still have a really strong offense thanks to Ryan Braun, Rickie Weeks, and the surprising Casey McGehee. And now the Brew Crew have some pitching to match, thanks to the great acquisitions of Zach Greinke and Shawn Marcum to team with Yovani Gallardo. 

2. Cincinnati Reds

The Reds surprised a lot of people by winning the Central last year but Walt Jocketty has done a very good job in building this club from within while adding some veterans to the mix. The middle of their order is fantastic with MVP Joey Votto, the resurgent Scott Rolen, and the young Jay Bruce to go with the solid tablesetter Brandon Phillips. The Reds finally developed some good pitching with Edinson Volquez breaking through last year. But I just can't see this team outlasting the Brewers but they will make it a fun race.

3. St. Louis Cardinals

Albert Pujols is clearly the top hitter in baseball but I believe his contract status will be a major distraction. The Cardinals were boosting a strong rotation before Adam Wainwright was lost for virtually the whole season, leaving Chris Carpenter to carry the staff. This team does not have the depth to keep up with the top two clubs. 

4. Chicago Clubs

The Cubs are at a point with their team in that they really should consider blowing up the roster and starting with scratch but they have a bunch of guys that are on the downsides of their careers making big money. Unless a bunch of their players have comeback seasons or some of their unproven players have career years, it will be a long season at the Friendly Confines yet again. 

5. Houston Astros

The Astros could actually surprise if their pitching staff pulls together another solid year and their offense plays to potential. But they are still several pieces away, most notably another starter and another big time bat. Hunter Pence was terrific last season but Carlos Lee needs to rebound from a subpar year. Brett Myers and Wandy Rodriguez will need to have another good year if they want to make a serious run. It's possible, but do not bet one it. 

6. Pittsburgh Pirates

The Pirates actually have talent in their organization thanks to shrewd drafting and Andrew McCutchen and Pedro Alvarez look like studs. But they have a bunch of four starters in their rotation and that will be their downfall. But their is actually some hope on the horizon for Bucs fans for the future. But the future is not now. 

West

1. San Francisco Giants

The defending World Series champions still have the awesome pitching that got them the title. Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Jonathan Sanchez, and Madison Bumgarner will lead the rotation and their quirky yet highly effective closer Brian Wilson will key the bullpen. And as long as Buster Posey continues to crush the ball, their offense will be plenty good enough as well.


2. Colorado Rockies

Their lineup features Carlos Gonzalez and Troy Tulowitski, two studs who are at or near the top of their positions, but not much else. Their pitching staff features the electric Ubaldo Jimenez and the talented Jorge De La Rosa and Jhoulys Chacin but their backend is not great. The Rockies will be players in both the divisional and Wild Card races but will come up short in both.


3. San Diego Padres

Without Adrian Gonzalez, the Padres have no offense at all. They have small ball types but no big bopper, which actually might work a little in spacious Petco Park. Their pitching though is still very solid and have two major advantages over other teams, manager Bud Black who was a terrific pitching coach and the home ballpark. But this team will not backup their surprising season of a year ago.


4. Los Angeles Dodgers

Their ownership situation is just an unmitigated disaster and is holding this club back big time. They were unable to make the moves they needed to make to be a major contender but they have some pieces in their rotation and their lineup. But with their farm system, not as fruitful as it has been in the past, it does not look like a good situation at all this season in Chavez Ravine.


5. Arizona Diamondbacks

The powers that be that run the D'backs made a great decision to bring in Kevin Towers, who has the reputation of one of the most underrated GM's in baseball. He has begun a necessary rebuilding project in Phoenix but has some good pieces in Justin Upton, Chris Young and Stephen Drew to build with. However, the dearth of consistent pitching will hurt this club all year.


MVP: Troy Tulowitski
CY Young: Josh Johnson
Rookie of the Year: Freddie Freeman
Manager of the Year: Ron Roenicke

NLCS

Philadelphia over San Francisco in 6

*Wild Card winner


East
1. Boston Red Sox

The Sox already had an elite offense despite the injuries they suffered from last year but they made a pair of terrific moves to add even more juice with Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez. Crawford adds a lot of speed and terrific defense and Gonzalez escapes the hitters graveyard of Petco Park for the bandbox that is Fenway Park and could put monster numbers. The pitching is also pretty solid so this will be a major World Series contender.


2. New York Yankees*

The Yankees seemingly every year have a terrific offense and that will be the story yet again this season. But their pitching is of some concern. Besides the ace CC Sabathia and the young gun Phil Hughes, the Yankees' rotation has a lot of questions. Unless they bring in some pitching help, I don't think they can get past the Sox. But they are still a contender in the American League without question.


3. Tampa Bay Rays

The cupboard is weaker but not bare in St. Pete. There is talent in the rotation as David Price is an absolute stud and I'm a big fan of Wade Davis and Jeremy Hellickson. And Evan Longoria can still rake with the best, but one has to wonder when B.J. Upton will ever reach his immense potential. 

4. Toronto Blue Jays

Even as they move on without Vernon Wells, they still have a solid lineup (unless Jose Bautista falls off the face of the earth, which is certainly possible). I really like the pitching the Jays have as they have a lot of talent  with Brandon Morrow, Ricky Romero, Brett Cecil and the very talented rookie Kyle Drabek. Their bullpen is weak but new manager John Farrell is a very good pitching coach and he will get the most out of the arms in his stable. 

5. Baltimore Orioles

Buck Showalter did an amazing job when he took over the club late in the season and even though he is a great manager, he will have to get a lot out of this club for them to push .500. There is power in the lineup with Adam Jones, Nick Markakis, Luke Scott and the newly acquired Mark Reynolds. But their pitching has to make improvement. Brian Matusz has a boatload of talent and he has shown flashes of being an ace. But beyond him and Jeremy Guthrie, there is not much in the rotation that is proven. But don't be surprised if this club turns some heads. 

Central

1. Minnesota Twins

The Twins will reign supreme in the Central again but it won't be easy. They still enjoy the best player in the America League, Joe Mauer, and if Justin Morneau is finally healthy they will mash. Their pitching is solid as always and Ron Gardenhire is a fantastic manager. The White Sox and Tigers are getting closer but it is still Minnesota' division to lose.


2. Detroit Tigers

The Tigers were only a .500 club last year but I loved that moves that they made this offseason. Victor Martinez will add juice to an already very solid lineup and Joaquin Benoit gives the bullpen a much needed set-up man as well as some insurance for closer Jose Valverde. Justin Verlander should be terrific as usual and Miquel Cabrera will have another awesome season at the dish. Detroit will push Minnesota to the limits.


3. Chicago White Sox

The Sox made a great move to bring in Adam Dunn but I do believe they got passed by the Tigers. This is still a strong team that could definitely capture the division as they have the pieces with a solid lineup and a good rotation. They do have to get the closer situation settled. But will Ozzie Guillen and GM Ken Williams strangle each other some point this season? Always a possibility.


4. Kansas City Royals

The Royals have finally figured out this rebuilding thing and they have some great prospects in their organization, led by third baseman Mike Moustakas. The Royals have some nice bats in their lineup and Luke Hochever looks like a stud. Plus if they can get to the ninth with a leader, star closer Joakim Soria will finish it off. The lack of depth in the starting rotation will hurt but this team could excite.


5. Cleveland Indians

The painful rebuilding process has commenced in the Forest City. There looks to be only a few keepers throughout the whole roster but unless Gardy Sizemore and Travis Hafner get back to their previous high level of play, they won't go anywhere but the cellar this year.


West


1. Texas Rangers

The team is practically together again that won the America League last season so I do not expect this club to falter. The offense looks loaded with Josh Hamilton, Nelson Cruz, Michael Young, Ian Kinsler and free agent acquisition Adrian Beltre all swinging potent bats. The pitching staff and the bullpen are always intact and if Brandon Webb is fully healthy, he could be a major surprise.


2. Oakland Athletics

The A's have a rotation that is finally the caliber of those they had at the start of the millennium. Their entire pitching staff is very strong and deep. Trevor Cahill is a legitimate Cy Young candidate and Dallas Braden, Gio Gonzalez and Brett Anderson. The concern with the Athletics is the offense but the additions of Josh Willingham and Hideki Matsui give the lineup some much needed punch.


3. Los Angeles Angles of Anaheim

This team has missed its opportunity to be a major American League contender. The lineup is not that great with Kendry Morales, coming off an ankle injury, the primary source of offense while the rest of the lineup not having great years last year. The Angels do have some good pitching but not a great bullpen. I really think that the team you saw last season that finished around .500 is what you will see in Anaheim this season.


4. Seattle Mariners

This team still has no offense at all. They are relying heavily on first baseman Justin Smoak to breakthrough in a big way plus Franklin Guitierrez be more than an awesome fielder but I do not expect either to be completing for Silver Sluggers. They do have arguably the top pitcher in the Junior Circuit in Felix Hernandez but have no one noteworthy besides him. Eric Wedge is a fine manager but it will be a long season in the Pacific Northwest.


MVP: Evan Longoria
Cy Young: Justin Verlander
Rookie of the Year: Mike Moustakas
Manager of the Year: Bob Geren

ALCS

Boston over New York in 7

Philadelphia Phillies over Boston Red Sox in 7